As over 4 billion people endure lockdowns worldwide, a report from researchers at the University of Göttingen in Germany challenges official figures. Their analysis, drawing on a peer-reviewed model, estimates that only 6% of COVID-19 infections have been detected globally—suggesting tens of millions of actual cases.
Official global COVID-19 statistics as of early April 2020 reported nearly 1.5 million confirmed cases and around 90,000 deaths. However, researchers from the University of Göttingen present a starkly different picture, based on a study published in The Lancet (PDF in English / 9 pages) on March 30, 2020. This model assesses COVID-19 severity and reveals that countries have identified just 6% of true cases.
National and international media may thus underestimate the infection scale, with global cases potentially reaching tens of millions.
The German researchers analyzed data from 40 countries, with figures up to March 31, 2020. Their report details officially confirmed cases, estimated total infections, and detection rates. Limited and delayed testing explains higher death tolls in places like Italy and Spain compared to Germany, where detection reached over 15%. Italy and Spain detected only 3.5% and 1.68% of cases, respectively, while France managed 2.62%.
Detection rates were even lower elsewhere: the United States (1.59%), the United Kingdom (1.19%), and Turkey (0.12%). Countries with slower responses to the outbreak show the lowest rates. In contrast, South Korea achieved a remarkable 49.47% detection rate after early aggressive testing, while Norway reached 37.76% with minimal cases and deaths.
The estimates are eye-opening: as of March 31, 2020, 11.8 million cases in the US, 11.2 million in Turkey, 5.7 million in Spain, 3 million in Italy, and over 2 million each in France and the UK. If accurate, these figures imply significantly lower mortality rates than reported.
