Genomic analyses indicate SARS-CoV-2 began circulating in New York by mid-February 2020. Initial concerns focused on Asian origins, but evidence points to Europe as the source.
A New York Times article from April 8, 2020, highlighted research by New York University geneticist Adriana Heguy. Her team examined 75 nasal cavity samples from patients at three New York hospitals. As the U.S. epicenter, New York accounted for nearly half of national COVID-19 deaths at the time.
Findings showed most cases traced back to Europe, not Asia. This aligns with early U.S. travel restrictions on China—effective January 31, barring foreigners who had visited in the prior two weeks—while European travel bans came later, in mid-March under President Trump.
The first COVID-19 genome was sequenced late January 2020, followed by over 3,000 more. Some genomes match the original strain, while others bear distinctive mutations. Viruses mutate during replication, creating traceable genetic markers. Study leaders calculated a high probability the virus arrived from the United Kingdom.
Researchers argue an early testing program could have detected it sooner, potentially averting the outbreak. The U.S. toll then stood at over 430,000 cases and nearly 15,000 deaths. White House projections estimated 100,000 to 200,000 total deaths.
Next, the team aims to scale sequencing to 200 samples weekly, building a vast genomic library. Similar efforts worldwide will share data for global insights.
