As France eyes deconfinement on May 15, 2021, Institut Pasteur experts caution that hospitalizations could surge significantly, even with accelerated vaccinations.
In its April 26, 2021, report (PDF in French, 10 pages), Institut Pasteur analyzes the lifting of containment measures and SARS-CoV-2 circulation in coming months. Drawing on deconfinement from May 15, prior measures, vaccination acceleration, and the UK variant's transmissibility, the institute outlines several scenarios—not predictions, but data-driven hypotheses shaped by unpredictable factors.
Notably, the analysis excludes school reopenings on May 3, which could boost transmission, and emerging South African or Brazilian variants.
The baseline scenario assumes a 60% more transmissible UK variant and measures curbing hospitalizations initially. Yet, experts warn that rapid lifting of restrictions on May 15 could trigger a sharp rise in hospitalizations—even at 500,000 daily vaccine doses.
By mid-July, daily admissions could surpass 3,000, exceeding the second wave's peak from a year prior. Currently, averages hover around 1,800 daily, with a slight recent decline.
More favorable scenarios emerge with a 40% more contagious UK variant, projecting peaks below 1,500 daily hospitalizations—or under 500 in the best case. Gradual easing from May 15 to July 1 could contain new cases.
A phased approach would delay resurgence until vaccinations advance further. Short-term, hospitalizations may decline from May 1-15, though some models predict a plateau.
