As France approaches 100,000 official COVID-19 deaths from SARS-CoV-2, it ranks among the highest in per capita fatalities worldwide. Yet, a recent France Stratégie study reveals that true excess mortality places our country well below the global and European averages.
With over 97,000 official COVID-19 deaths, France sits eighth among the most affected nations. Per capita, that's more than 1,400 deaths per million inhabitants—compared to around 900 in Germany and 750 in Greece. Does this mean France's COVID-19 strategy fell short? A France Stratégie report published March 28, 2021, argues otherwise. By analyzing excess mortality from 2016-2017 versus 2019-2020, the study highlights how many countries underreport deaths.
Researchers note that official COVID-19 death tolls often fall short of reality, sometimes by nearly half compared to observed excess mortality in the pandemic's first year. Using excess mortality data (observed vs. expected deaths), the analysis positions Europe as the second-least affected region globally, after East Asia—with France performing better than the European average.
The study examined excess mortality across more than 65 countries, representing about 70% of WHO-reported COVID-19 deaths. Latin America topped the list at 51.6% excess mortality, followed by the Near and Middle East (26.5%) and North America (23.2%).
Europe averaged 17.8% excess mortality, with France at 13.6%—a notable result given our aging population's higher vulnerability. Lead author Julien Rousselon dismisses simplistic explanations like Germany's hospital bed capacity or Slovakia's mass testing, which may have fostered complacency. In low-impact cases like Canada or Israel, factors such as strict border controls or geography (e.g., islands) played key roles. Political downplaying or administrative limitations affected reporting elsewhere.
Like any analysis, this study has limitations. Excess mortality isn't solely from COVID-19; it includes impacts from overburdened healthcare systems and indirect effects like reduced survival for non-COVID patients. Positively, fewer accidents and other infectious diseases offset some losses.
