A few days ago, the UK government opted for 'herd immunity' to manage the coronavirus pandemic—a bold but ethically fraught approach that prompted a quick policy U-turn.
French President Emmanuel Macron announced stringent measures on March 16 to curb the coronavirus spread, including school closures, shutdowns of non-essential shops, and restrictions on outings punishable by fines. This approach mirrored strategies in hard-hit Italy and Spain.
Most affected countries have adopted similar containment tactics, which have shown promising results in places like China.
The UK, however, initially pursued a different path: herd immunity.
When infected, the body produces antibodies via the immune system to combat the virus. After recovery, it retains a 'memory' of the pathogen, enabling a faster response to future exposures.
Herd immunity occurs when enough people develop immunity, slowing or stopping transmission to the vulnerable. For COVID-19, with a reproduction rate of 2-3 (one infected person spreads it to 2-3 others on average), achieving this requires the rate to drop below 1. Experts estimated around 60% of Britons would need to contract the virus.
While the math checks out on paper—as emphasized by Patrick Vallance, the UK government's chief scientific adviser—the strategy carries significant dangers. We lack long-term data on COVID-19 outcomes, and even mild cases in healthy individuals could transmit the virus to high-risk groups prone to severe illness or death.
Analyses projected that herd immunity would require over 47 million infections in the UK. At a 2.3% mortality rate, this could mean more than a million deaths, with another eight million needing intensive care—far beyond the NHS's capacity.
These figures raise profound ethical concerns, underscoring the strategy's impracticality.
Public behavior began shifting, with streets emptying in recent days. Responding to warnings of hundreds of thousands of potential deaths, the government introduced new measures: schools closing from Friday, 40 London Underground stations shuttered, and strong advisories against non-essential contact, restaurants, pubs, theaters, and workplaces—though not yet legally enforced.
Effectiveness remains uncertain. Emeline, a French expat in London for four years, shared: "The English aren't fully heeding the measures and continue life as usual." She recently declined a wedding invitation for 500 people in east London.
For context, UK coronavirus deaths rose 30% in one day to 104 as of Wednesday.
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