As public frustration mounts in China over the COVID-19 response, evidence reveals scientists flagged a potential coronavirus epidemic nearly a year earlier—a warning largely overlooked by authorities.
Anger is boiling over among Chinese citizens, especially in locked-down cities and neighborhoods, fueled by social media outcry. The COVID-19 epidemic has surpassed the 2003 SARS outbreak in scale, with many blaming Wuhan officials—including the mayor—for concealing information and downplaying the crisis when it was spiraling out of control.
A February 3, 2020, article in Challenges highlights that authorities were alerted almost a year prior. In a March 2019 Viruses journal paper, researchers stated:
“It is generally accepted that bat-borne coronaviruses will re-emerge and cause the next outbreak. In this regard, China is a probable risk zone. The challenge is knowing where and when, so that we can do our best to prevent such disease outbreaks.”
Armed with this foresight, Chinese virologists had little excuse for surprise at the 2019-nCoV emergence. Prior SARS (2003) and MERS (2012) outbreaks had primed local experts. They eventually shared genetic sequences for SARS comparison on January 18, followed by the full virus genome a week later—enabling global labs to accelerate treatment development.
Yet first cases surfaced over two weeks before December 31, when China's WHO office was notified. Over a month elapsed before full sequencing. Early whistleblowers, including Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang, were silenced by authorities, threatened with prosecution for “spreading rumors.”
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