China's novel coronavirus outbreak could reach its peak within a week or 10 days, according to a renowned respiratory specialist.
As of Tuesday morning, official reports confirmed 107 deaths, all in China, and over 4,400 infections, primarily in the Wuhan region.
Cases are emerging elsewhere too. Germany reported Europe's first human-to-human transmission, while Japan identified an infection in a man who hadn't traveled to China but had transported tourists from Wuhan.
Authorities maintain optimism despite quarantining over 56 million people around the epicenter.
"China is working openly with the international community in transparency and scientific coordination," Ambassador Zhang Jun assured UN Secretary-General António Guterres on Monday. "With great responsibility, we're doing everything to contain the virus and protect lives."
Professor Zhong Nanshan, a top Chinese respiratory expert who played a key role in containing the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak, recently stated the epidemic won't see "large-scale development." He predicts the peak within "a week or 10 days," after which "the death rate will begin to decline."
Zeng Guang, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, adds that warmer temperatures ahead "are not conducive to respiratory infectious diseases," aiding improvement.
Not all views align. A University of Hong Kong team led by Gabriel Leung used mathematical models to estimate up to 44,000 infections by January 25, with cases potentially doubling every six days and peaking in April or May.
For real-time tracking, Johns Hopkins University researchers have developed an interactive map of 2019-nCoV spread. Access it here.
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