Research teams worldwide are analyzing when the 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak will peak. Some experts suggest it may have already occurred, while others point to April or May. Post-peak, cases are expected to stabilize before gradually declining.
As of February 8, 2020, official reports confirmed 34,939 cases and 725 deaths from 2019-nCoV. Understanding the outbreak's trajectory requires identifying its peak to forecast when it might subside.
On January 28, Prof. Zhong Nanshan, China's foremost respiratory disease expert, forecasted the peak "in a week or 10 days," around February 6. Prof. Gui Xi'en pinpointed February 8, coinciding with the Lantern Festival. While the WHO noted stabilization in Hubei province cases that Saturday, other authorities anticipate a later summit.
A January 31 study in The Lancet painted a different picture. Hong Kong researchers predict the peak not until April or May. Their models factored in human-to-human transmission and major hubs like Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, where pre-lockdown travel fueled spread. Various scenarios adjusted the transmissibility parameter, but all curves converged on April-May timelines.
Direct comparisons to prior outbreaks are tricky, as coronaviruses mutate frequently—2019-nCoV could grow more transmissible or severe. Notably, fecal-oral transmission has emerged as a secondary route.
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