Official reports confirm 45 cases of the mysterious Wuhan virus, including three diagnosed abroad—a sign that the true number may be significantly higher, according to leading researchers.
Since December 2019, Wuhan, China, has grappled with an outbreak of viral pneumonia linked to the South China Seafood City market, a hub for seafood and wildlife sales. Genetic sequencing reveals it's a novel coronavirus, 80% similar to the SARS virus found in bats.
As of early January 2020, 45 cases were reported, including the first fatality on January 9. Two occurred in Thailand and one in Japan.
However, experts at Imperial College London suggest these figures underestimate the scale.
Using statistical models and data on international flights from Wuhan airport, researchers estimate more than 1,700 people could be infected in China. "For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries, there must be many more cases than reported," said Professor Neil Ferguson, lead author of the study, in a BBC interview. "I am much more concerned than I was a week ago."
This analysis has prompted enhanced airport screenings worldwide. Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, and Japan have tightened checks on Wuhan flights. By Friday, U.S. airports in San Francisco, New York (JFK), and Los Angeles followed suit.
With Lunar New Year on January 25 approaching, health authorities are on high alert. Hundreds of millions will travel via public transport to reunite with family or vacation in Southeast Asia, amplifying spread risks.
While no confirmed human-to-human transmission exists yet, caution prevails—the Thailand cases had no market link.
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