University of Hong Kong researchers warn that confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus severely underestimate the true scale of infections.
Chinese authorities reported 81 deaths and 2,816 confirmed infections on Monday, up from 56 deaths and about 2,000 cases two days prior. These figures highlight the virus's rapid spread.
Ma Xiaowei, head of China's National Health Commission, noted Sunday that the virus has an incubation period of up to two weeks and can spread during this asymptomatic phase, allowing transmission before symptoms appear.
Drawing on this data, Gabriel Leung and his University of Hong Kong team used mathematical models to project a much higher toll.
Their analysis suggests around 25,000 symptomatic cases by January 25. Including those in incubation, the total could reach nearly 44,000 infections as of Saturday.
While Wuhan remains the epicenter, cases have emerged in major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. As Leung observes, "These are key regional and international transport nodes, making further spread from these points highly likely."
Leung predicts infections could double every six days, peaking in April or May. He urged during a press briefing: "Prepare for this to become a global outbreak. Implement significant, drastic travel restrictions immediately."
Imperial College London scientists similarly model each infected person transmitting the virus to 2-3 others.
Credits: JESHOOTS/Pixabay
Responses are intensifying: Over 56 million people remain quarantined in central China. North Korea and Mongolia have sealed borders with China. Hong Kong declared an emergency, closing schools for three weeks and canceling New Year events.
France and the US are evacuating nationals from affected areas. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian stated: "We're organizing air repatriation with Interior, Health, and Armed Forces ministries, likely mid-week."
Whether these steps suffice to contain the outbreak remains uncertain.
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