Researchers from the CUNY Graduate School of Public Health & Health Policy ran simulations showing that an SARS-CoV-2 vaccine with at least 80% efficacy could help end the COVID-19 pandemic.
More than 150 COVID-19 vaccines were in development worldwide, with five advancing to phase III trials involving 30,000 to 40,000 participants—the final hurdle before regulatory approval. Russia's Sputnik V vaccine launched recently, but major authorities like the WHO have yet to approve it.
Beyond development, a vaccine must elicit a robust immune response across a broad population. Historical examples vary: the 2016 flu vaccine hit just 30% efficacy due to viral mutations, while the measles vaccine achieves 93-98% effectiveness.
Published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine on July 15, 2020, the CUNY study modeled minimum efficacy thresholds to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. It found 60% efficacy sufficient with full population vaccination, but at a realistic 75% coverage, 80% efficacy is needed.
This could reduce peak infections by 85% if 5% of the population is already immune, or 62% if 15% have prior exposure. However, experts note no single vaccine will fully restore pre-pandemic life without measures like masking—requiring unrealistically perfect performance.
Even lower-efficacy options have merit. A 40% effective vaccine could avert 89,500 hospitalization days and prevent 2.8 million ventilator cases, easing healthcare strain. Prioritizing high-risk groups could slash severe outcomes, saving lives and costs. The FDA set a 50% efficacy minimum for U.S. approval, highlighting global regulatory benchmarks.
