Climate change poses profound challenges for humanity, but food security is equally pressing. Beyond population growth, increasing average body mass index (BMI) will amplify food demand—a trend unlikely to reverse anytime soon.
Earth's current population is approximately 7.7 billion. The United Nations' June 2019 report (PDF in English / 46 pages) forecasts it will reach nearly 11 billion by 2100. Yet, a December 5, 2019, study from the University of Göttingen in Germany, published in PLOS One, identifies another key driver of rising food needs.
The researchers project global food consumption could rise by 80% by 2100. Population growth accounts for 60% of this increase, but the remaining portion—including 20% tied to evolving body sizes—raises serious concerns.
To model future scenarios, the team analyzed rapid changes in countries like the Netherlands and Mexico—offering realistic global benchmarks. Mexico has seen sharp BMI increases, while the Netherlands experienced gains mainly in average height.
The outlook is sobering: unless food production scales dramatically, average BMI will not decline. Wealthier populations may sustain their lifestyles, but others could rely on nutrient-poor, inexpensive foods, fueling further weight gain. This scenario heightens risks of malnutrition and health crises.
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