A French statistician has shared a compelling yet concerning graph highlighting the rise of SARS-CoV-2 variants. While the overall epidemic declines, this growth in variants creates a precarious balance that demands close monitoring.
Are SARS-CoV-2 variants a growing threat in France? As reported by Le Figaro on February 4, 2021, variants accounted for about 3% of PCR-positive cases in early January, rising to 14% by February. This steady, exponential increase prompted statistician Elias Orphelin—a contributor to the CovidTracker monitoring site—to publish insightful graphs on February 7, 2021, via Twitter. His visualizations precisely map the proportion of viral mutations within France's epidemic.
The graph below illustrates the current dynamics: the blue curve tracks total coronavirus cases, the gray curve shows British variant cases, and the red curve combines all variants.
These charts reveal two distinct trends in France: a decline in cases from the original virus, offset by rising variant-driven cases. Per Orphelin, variants are growing exponentially—faster than the baseline decline—forcing a temporary stagnation. In contrast, Germany's baseline epidemic fails to counter this surge.
Upcoming data will clarify France's trajectory. Orphelin outlined three scenarios in additional graphs (below): a variant-fueled epidemic surge, continued overall decline, or sustained stagnation amid competing forces.
These analyses underscore why variants warrant urgent attention, as they fuel a more aggressive dynamic than the original virus. Health Minister Olivier Véran labeled them “new viruses” and “an epidemic within an epidemic.”
On February 8, 2021, the government issued DGS-URGENT N° 2021_12 to healthcare professionals, outlining a containment strategy targeting South African (20H/501Y.V2) and Brazilian (20J/501Y.V3) variants, with focus on the dominant British variant (20I/501Y.V1).
